US Congress Moves to Classify Crypto Prediction Bets as Gambling

What This Means for Crypto Casino Players

Crypto-native prediction platforms have attracted a global user base by offering outcome-based wagering that sits in the regulatory gap between commodity trading and gambling. Kalshi and Polymarket accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for contracts tied to sports results, elections, and economic data. Under the proposed legislation, those sports and casino-style products would be subject to state gambling law rather than federal commodity rules — a change that could restrict or remove US sports markets from platforms that currently serve international players alongside American ones.

Internationally licensed crypto sportsbooks, which operate entirely outside the CFTC framework, are not directly targeted by this bill. South African players seeking active crypto sports betting options can find platforms on our best crypto sports betting guide for South African players. All operators listed hold international licences and accept South African players.

From State Courts to the Senate

The bill is the legislative culmination of a regulatory conflict that began in state courts. Nevada's Gaming Control Board secured a temporary restraining order against Kalshi on 22 March after the platform argued that CFTC approval shields it from state gaming law. That argument has been rejected in Nevada and challenged in proceedings across Massachusetts and Arizona. The bill would settle the jurisdictional question by statute: sports-outcome and casino-style contracts are gambling, and unless a state opts in to regulate them independently, they cannot operate under CFTC commodity rules alone.

The bill's scope extends well beyond sports wagers. It covers all sporting competition at amateur, collegiate, and professional levels, plus casino-style games including slots, poker, blackjack, roulette, craps, bingo, and lotteries — a substantial portion of what prediction platforms currently list. States may choose to create their own frameworks, but that decision would rest with gaming regulators rather than the CFTC, reversing the current arrangement that prediction platforms have relied upon for nationwide access.

Market volume has driven the legislative urgency. Polymarket's short-duration Bitcoin price contracts were processing $60 million in daily trades by early March. Contracts tied to football, rugby, and cricket outcomes add considerably to that total among international users. The CFTC has an open review of event contract rules with no firm deadline, and both sponsors concluded that waiting for agency guidance was not a realistic solution with multiple state enforcement actions already under way.

What to Watch

Committee assignment will determine the bill's immediate path. If it picks up further co-sponsors, it could also pressure the CFTC to clarify its rules more rapidly, making legislative action less necessary. A companion bill in the House remains possible. For players using prediction platforms to wager on Premier League fixtures, Springboks rugby, or PSL football with crypto, the key question is where those platforms hold their licences — CFTC registration alone is proving insufficient across a growing number of US jurisdictions. South African players can find currently active internationally licensed options on our best crypto casino page for South African players.